How has the war and the ongoing domestic crisis affected Belarus and its relations with Russia? What is the future of both the Belarusian regime and Belarus as a sovereign state? This talk discusses the evolution of the Belarusian regime, state-society relations and the formation of a new model of Belarus-Russia relations since the outbreak of the Belarusian crisis (2020) and Russian-Ukrainian war (2022). It shows how both structural drivers and situational choices turned Aliaksandr Lukashenka into the only co-aggressor in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how the war re-shapes the core pillars of Lukashenka’s domestic governance structure. Its outlook, as well as the future of Belarus as a state, however, will depend on the outcome of the Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.