Monday, October 21, 2024 4pm to 5pm
About this Event
1957 E St NW | Washington, DC 20052
What are Putin's red lines? How do we evaluate them? Is there something different about the recent threat directed at the West should Ukraine receive approval to use lethal military assistance to strike deep inside Russia? This talk seeks to address these questions by deciphering the content, context, and coherence of Putin's red line discourse. Specifically, it leverages data analytical techniques to compare and contrast expectations from the Western canon with the idiosyncrasies of the construction and timing of Putin's explicit references to red lines. The disconnect between this overt discourse and potential trigger events is situated within the strategic logic of Russia's "way of warfare" that places a premium on "reflexive control," as opposed to demonstrating reputation and credibility. This explication of the explicit discourse is augmented by ongoing data and visual analysis of the application of Putin's "real" red line threats to identify benchmarks for assessing the most recent threats and the risks of inadvertent escalation.